Tag Archives: Finesse or Drop?

How best to play this heart suit?

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Note: This puzzle appeared in Bob Jones’s bridge column on December 14. I hope you will find it as interesting as I did. Since I am not constrained by space limitations, I felt I could add some insights to his useful discussion.

 

You are south in 3NT. Partner opens the bidding with two hearts (weak) in 1st seat. You respond 2NT, asking partner about his hand. Partner raises you to 3NT, promising a strong 6-card heart suit.

Opening lead by West is the queen of diamonds. You win in hand as East follows with the three of diamonds. Next you lead a low heart toward dummy, West following with the deuce. Here is what you see and what you know about opponents’ hands before you play from dummy:

You know from the opening lead and play so far that West started with the queen-jack and 10 or 9 of diamonds and (from West’s card at trick two) the deuce of hearts. You know one card that East started with was the three of diamonds. That leaves 9 unknown spaces in the West hand and 12 unknown spaces in the East hand.

Now you need to decide how you are going to play the heart suit.

  1.  How would you play hearts when scoring is matchpoints?
  2.  How would you play hearts when scoring is IMPs?

You can count six sure winners: two clubs, two diamonds, and two hearts. You will need to develolp 3 more winners in hearts to make the contract. 4 more heart winners would give you an overtrick. In matchpoints it’s always better to go for the overtrick when you have a better than even chance of winning it.

In thinking about your decision, notice that hearts provide your only entry to dummy.

Your best line of play depends on opponents’ shapes in their holding of the remaining hearts. What are those possible shapes? Should you finess the jack of hearts now?

This is a good one for one (maybe two) of our Wednesday think out loud lessons.

 

Interesting Hand on BBO

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Here is an interesting hand I observed this morning played by world class players on Bridge Base Online (BBO).

BBO1

BBO2

Quote of the Day

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When reading about suit combinations, I strongly suggest dealing out the suit in question.

That’s from Marty Bergen in Bridge Bulletin, January 2020, p, 57.

It’s often hard to see what’s really going on when looking at a hand diagram. Put those cards on the table!

Taking All Your Chances

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Declarer can often improve her likelihood of success by recognizing all possible chances.

chances1

chances2

 

Play of a Slam

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See update below

You end up in six hearts (opponents are silent) and left hand opponent leads the 10 of spades. Here is what you see after the lead:

Dummy

Dummy2

 

You

You1

 

This is a good slam. What is your best chance to make it? Give it some thought and I will update a little later today.

Update: Counting your losers, you see one possible heart loser, one possible club loser and one possible diamond loser. You can avoid the club loser by pitching a low club on one of dummy’s spade winners.

One way to avoid the heart loser is to finesse for the queen of hearts, a 50 percent chance. Another way is to play the ace and king of hearts, hoping to drop the queen (a 52 percent chance missing four hearts). Playing for the drop has a little better chance of avoiding the heart loser.

Can you still make the slam if you don’t drop the heart queen? Yes, it depends on the location of the ace of diamonds. If left hand opponent has the ace of diamonds, you can finesse her for it by leading the king. If she does not cover the king with the ace, pitch a spade from dummy and hope she has the ace. If she does cover with the ace, you ruff in dummy (this is known as a ruffing finesse). If she does not have the ace you are down one. There is a 50 percent chance she has the ace.

Bottom line: This is a parcentage slam. It will make if you drop the queen of hearts or if the ruffing finesse in diamonds is successful. The likelihood of making the slam is roughly 77 percent.