Hilo Bridge Club Updates
This is from Warren Buffett in comparing bridge to investing:
The approach and strategies are very similar in that you gather all the information you can and then keep adding to that base of information as things develop. You do whatever the probabilities indicated based on the knowledge that you have at that time, but you are always willing to modify your behavior or your approach as you get new information.
You are end up four spades with silent opponents. Partner splintered your one spade opening with four diamonds. The opening lead is the ace of diamonds.
Dummy
Lead: 
You
You count your losers: perhaps one spade if they break 3-0, one heart, one diamond and no clubs. But do you have enough trumps in dummy to ruff two diamonds and two hearts? Assuming spades break 2-1, how can you insure 11 tricks ?
Here is an exercise in counting the hand. Whether you are declarer or defender, counting helps you solve the mystery of missing honors. For example, you need to locate the missing club honors in this hand:
Dummy
Lead 
You
Once you give me the answers to those questions, we will be able do some more counting to investigate location of the missing honors in clubs. Stay tuned.
See update below.
Once you have answered that question, you must decide how to reduce the number of losers while managing the trump suit. Give it some thought and I will elaborate later today.
Update: Overtricks are important in our pairs game. Whats’ you best chance to make three or four spades?
It looks like you have two potential losers in the trump suit, none in hearts, one in diamonds, and two in clubs. That gives you five potential losers. It looks like there is nothing you can do about losers in diamonds and clubs. How do you plan to manage the trump suit for no more than one loser?
Best chance is to finesse left hand opponent for the remaining two spade honors. If she has just one of them, you will reduce your potential spade losers to one. If she has them both, you may avoid a spade loser altogether. Use those hearts for entries to take spade finesses (it’s okay to overtake the king with the ace). You still don’t have any heart losers.
Question: What would you do differently if the queen of clubs was a small club?
See update below
You end up in six hearts (opponents are silent) and left hand opponent leads the 10 of spades. Here is what you see after the lead:
Dummy
You
This is a good slam. What is your best chance to make it? Give it some thought and I will update a little later today.
Update: Counting your losers, you see one possible heart loser, one possible club loser and one possible diamond loser. You can avoid the club loser by pitching a low club on one of dummy’s spade winners.
One way to avoid the heart loser is to finesse for the queen of hearts, a 50 percent chance. Another way is to play the ace and king of hearts, hoping to drop the queen (a 52 percent chance missing four hearts). Playing for the drop has a little better chance of avoiding the heart loser.
Can you still make the slam if you don’t drop the heart queen? Yes, it depends on the location of the ace of diamonds. If left hand opponent has the ace of diamonds, you can finesse her for it by leading the king. If she does not cover the king with the ace, pitch a spade from dummy and hope she has the ace. If she does cover with the ace, you ruff in dummy (this is known as a ruffing finesse). If she does not have the ace you are down one. There is a 50 percent chance she has the ace.
Bottom line: This is a parcentage slam. It will make if you drop the queen of hearts or if the ruffing finesse in diamonds is successful. The likelihood of making the slam is roughly 77 percent.
You are East in four spades. You dealt and opened one spade, partner responded two diamonds and you signed off in four spades with your six likely spade tricks plus the ace of hearts. South leads the seven of hearts. How do you plan to play?
Start by counting your losers. You have one club loser and one potential diamond loser. Spades will break 2-2 almost 41 percent of the time and 3-1 almost 50 percent of the time. When spades break 3-1 the queen will be singleton 1/4 of the time. By playing spades from the top the queen will drop 53 percent of the time, so it’s best to play for the drop in spades.
Assuming the queen does drop, what’s your best play for overtricks? You have finesses availabe for the ace of clubs and the king of diamonds.
The order in which you take the two finesses makes a difference. It’s best to finesse for the ace of clubs first. If it loses you can still fall back on the diamond finesse. But if you took the diamond finesse first and it lost, defenders could cash the ace of clubs immediately, holding you to 11 tricks. If the club finesse wins you can attempt the diamond finesse for 13 tricks. If it loses, you are still able to attempt the diamond finesse for 12 tricks.
Recommended sequence of plays: Let the opening lead ride around to your ace-jack of hearts (a free finesse). Cash the top two spades. When the queen drops begin by finessing for the ace of clubs as described above.
When you are in a suit contract it’s usually best to count your losers before you play to trick one. Here is an example from yesterday. You are South in a contract of four spades. West leads the four of clubs, and you see this layout:
Counting your losers, you see one sure spade loser plus one possible loser each in clubs and diamonds. With no more than three losers, it looks like you will make your contract. But remember that overtricks are important in our pairs game.
How can you eliminate either a club loser or a diamond loser? One possible way is to play low and hope West has led from the king of clubs. But there is another way that is almost a sure thing, so don’t play too quickly to trick one. See if you can spot it before reading on.
Notice that you have the singleton ace of hearts in your hand. The king is in dummy. At trick two cash the ace of hearts. Go to dummy with the ace of diamonds. Cash the king of hearts, pitching that club loser! You will make five spades as long as LHO has at least two of the seven missing hearts.
