Here is a good visualization exercise for you. I recently saw this hand played in a BBO tournament, and no declarers seemed to put on their Mike Lawrence thinking cap. See if you can do better:
I win the ace of diamonds, East playing the three. What do I make of the opening lead? Opponents started with seven diamonds: Hierarchy of honors K Q J 10 9 as well as the deuce and trey. From what holding would West lead a little diamond when North has made a 2/1 diamond response?
Give this some Mike Lawrence kine thought, and let me know in comments or by email what you conclude.
Steve
May 25, 2020 at 6:38 pm
Harry, I think things have be right to make this contract — trumps split 3-2 with East holding the Q, A♥️ with East and ♣️s no worse than 5-2.
The diamond lead has to be a singleton (thanks for the hint) so I have to keep East out of the lead. The fact that West is trying for a ruff suggests that trump are in fact 3-2 (unless West has 4 or all 5),
.
At trick 2 I would lead the K♣️ followed by the J♣️ to my A. Next a low ♣️ from hand ruffed in dummy with the J ((I haven’t tried to figure out if the chance of an over-ruff is greater than a 4-1 trump break). Next a low ♥️ from dummy to the K. If it loses I am down at least 1, but if it wins I draw trump by leading low to K and then the 6 to the 10 in hand. If the finesse wins, the ♠️A and claim losing 2 hearts and 1 club. If not, down 1. If trumps break 4-1 I’m in trouble. I think an alternative line might be able to deal with a 4-1 trump split but it would take some luck or a misplay from East to pull 4 rounds of trump and protect my ♥️Q.
What do you think?
Steve