Here is a declarer play problem. You are South in a contract of six spades on the bidding shown. North leads the ten of clubs and this is what you see:
You assume that West would not lead the club 10 when holding the king, so you play the ace of clubs and draw trumps in 2 rounds. As you do so you observe the following from opponents:
- At trick 2 West plays the singleton queen of spades, East following low.
- At trick 3 West discards a low heart and East follows low.
- At trick 4 you lead a club, East winning the king and West following with the seven.
- At trick 5 East continues with a low club, West discards another low heart, and you win the trick while discarding a low diamond from hand.
Your 12th trick will have to come via a successful finesse. Are you counting the opponents’ hands? Which red suit finesse offers the better likelihood of success? Give it some thought and then scroll down for my decision rationale:
West showed up with a singleton spade and doubleton club. That means West started with 10 red cards and East with five. After West discards two hearts you know that West now holds 8 red cards and East 5 red cards. Odds are 8 to 5 that West holds the king of hearts. Probability that West holds the heart king is 8/13 (61.5%). It’s the same for West holding the diamond queen. I decide to go with the odds and finesse West for the heart king.