Counting your tricks in no trump

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Here is a hand I observed recently on BBO:

Counting in NT

Put yourself in the South seat. It looks like you have two fast tricks in spades, two in hearts, one in diamonds (your singleton king wins at trick one), and two in clubs. You need to set up two additional tricks. It looks like diamonds are splitting 4-4, and that you will lose three diamond tricks. You have seven card fits in each of the other suits. What’s the best way to set up a ninth trick? Give it some thought and scroll down for my recommended plan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can hope for a 3-3 split in spades, hearts, or clubs. But clubs offer your best chance. Look at those nice intermediates that you posess in clubs: 10, 9, 8, 7 . Win the ace of clubs and return the nine, planning to overtake if West plays an honor. That will work whenever clubs break 3-3 or you catch West with a doubleton honor. It’s the doubleton honor that gives you a slight extra chance in clubs. Also, you will hold your loss to down one when clubs don’t behave.

Here was the entire hand:

counting in NT too

 

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