See update below
You end up in six hearts (opponents are silent) and left hand opponent leads the 10 of spades. Here is what you see after the lead:
Dummy
You
This is a good slam. What is your best chance to make it? Give it some thought and I will update a little later today.
Update: Counting your losers, you see one possible heart loser, one possible club loser and one possible diamond loser. You can avoid the club loser by pitching a low club on one of dummy’s spade winners.
One way to avoid the heart loser is to finesse for the queen of hearts, a 50 percent chance. Another way is to play the ace and king of hearts, hoping to drop the queen (a 52 percent chance missing four hearts). Playing for the drop has a little better chance of avoiding the heart loser.
Can you still make the slam if you don’t drop the heart queen? Yes, it depends on the location of the ace of diamonds. If left hand opponent has the ace of diamonds, you can finesse her for it by leading the king. If she does not cover the king with the ace, pitch a spade from dummy and hope she has the ace. If she does cover with the ace, you ruff in dummy (this is known as a ruffing finesse). If she does not have the ace you are down one. There is a 50 percent chance she has the ace.
Bottom line: This is a parcentage slam. It will make if you drop the queen of hearts or if the ruffing finesse in diamonds is successful. The likelihood of making the slam is roughly 77 percent.